The German press that counts is accompanying the formation of the Draghi government with a certain optimism and discreet media support. According to German commentators, in fact, the new government will have to save Italy from financial bankruptcy and in this way defend the geostrategic interests of the dominant power within the eurozone. The always well-informed German Foreign Policy writes
The German mainstream media are accompanying the formation of a new government in Italy with a certain optimism, in some cases even giving detailed instructions for action. Former ECB president Mario Draghi, with the prospect of becoming the new Prime Minister, will have to govern an economy in a miserable state, reports Der Spiegel for example: "record debt, no growth, declining wealth, declining demographics." [1] Draghi is faced with "two main tasks": speeding up the vaccination campaign and "spending wisely" the EU anti-crisis funds amounting to more than 200 billion euros, which will start flowing in from the summer. And this must be done in the framework of a programme that meets EU requirements - "and quickly". Italy went through "a very bad decade and a half" that began with the introduction of the euro, during which the country "became poorer". In Germany, on the other hand, 'the gross domestic product per inhabitant has increased by about one eighth', according to a commentary that refrains from mentioning the fatal role played by Germany's huge trade surplus with the southern states of the eurozone. Italy is now threatened with nothing less than "ruin", and could turn into a "European Argentina", writes Manager Magazine [2]. But this is not an inexorable fate; Draghi will be called upon to use the EU billions in a "skilful and productive way", to stimulate private investment and to launch a "necessary renewal programme" to stimulate a "change of mood".
Following the example of the EU
Draghi, however, as future prime minister has a "great advantage", reports the commentary: political opponents in Italy can be silenced by pointing to the need to comply with the "requirements indicated by Brussels" and necessary for obtaining the crisis funds. If Italy wants to receive the more than EUR 200 billion in the fund, the country will necessarily have to 'adapt to the guidelines indicated by the EU'. The new head of government will be able to use this 'leverage' in the foreseeable power struggles. Whoever opposes Draghi risks not receiving the anti-crisis fund money from Brussels and having "a rude awakening from a rather precarious state of limbo," writes Manager Magazin. Other commentators, however, note that Italy suffers from a huge "backlog of unmade reforms" that Draghi will have to quickly clear up as prime minister, writes the FAZ [3]. The southern European country needs to invest in education and future-oriented technologies; moreover, structural reforms "in the judiciary, in public administration, and in politics" that Draghi must implement as "Italy's saviour" are still pending, writes Deutschlandfunk [4]. The former head of the central bank will have to face a "Herculean task"; the EU funds against the crisis represent a "historic opportunity" that must be seized. The German conservative media are also calling for the "raising of the retirement age" and the "removal of obstacles to growth"; these measures are to be implemented as part of a "major" reform package, writes Die Welt [5]. The former head of the central bank is now faced with a "Herculean task"; the EU's anti-crisis funds represent a "historic opportunity" that must be seized.
The stakes are high, also for Germany
At the same time, there are also some cautious voices in the conservative media. If the former head of the ECB were to be at the helm of Italy in the future and find himself at the "head of a government of technocrats", he would not only shape the third largest economy in the eurozone, but to some extent also "the entire European Union", writes Die Welt; and this would mean a lot at stake for Germany too. 6] Indeed, Draghi, as head of the ECB since 2012 with his expansive monetary policy has defended the euro "at all costs", saving the eurozone and "saving Italy from collapse". But this has also had "negative and serious consequences": the ECB's extensive purchases of government bonds at the height of the eurozone crisis led to "a slowdown in the zeal to make the necessary reforms in the most indebted countries - especially Italy". In the "creditor countries", especially Germany, savers paid a "high price" because of the ECB's zero interest policy. Draghi once again finds himself in an important position at a decisive stage, while the EU is once again in "crisis mode" and for the first time taking on "a large-scale common debt". The former central banker will therefore "once again be right there, where the most important decisions for the future of Europe are taken", in the role of Italian prime minister.
"Excellent relations in all capitals".
All this raises the question, they say in right-wing conservative circles, whether "the 750 billion euros of the fund will be enough" to cope with the current eurozone crisis. There have already been calls from 'many quarters' for the introduction of a 'permanent transfer system' to counteract the huge imbalances in the currency union, which are essentially the result of German trade surpluses. Discussions are also under way on the EU's stability pact, which will now have to be 'softened' because public debt in the currency area has risen to more than 100 % of GDP in the course of the fight against the pandemic. In Italy, "it is even expected to rise from 130 to over 150 %", writes Die Welt [7]. Since the German government in southern Europe due to its course of austerity during the euro crisis is "regarded as the great dictator of austerity", Draghi's "excellent relations with the capitals and the EU Commission, as well as ECB President Christine Lagarde", could prove to be "valuable capital" in future conflicts.
"Anti-German rhetoric"
A significant problem, however, is that the cabinet of technocrats under Draghi could depend on the support of ultra-right parties. Some components of the Democratic Party (PD), in fact, have so far refused to support a government that would also involve members of the right-wing and racist Lega Nord party. [8] Without the Five Stars, who emerged as the big winners from the March 2018 parliamentary elections and still remain the strongest group in Parliament, the numbers for Draghi could be tight, it is said. It is also true that in the meantime the Five Star Movement has also reportedly signalled its willingness to work with Draghi. Until recently, however, the movement's leading figure, the former TV comedian Beppe Grillo, regarded the former central banker as a "servant of high finance", writes the FAZ [9]. Moreover, the forces around Grillo, of all those in parliament, had strongly opposed German attempts to influence Italy's fiscal, economic and financial policy. In April 2020, for example, members of the Five Star Movement had threatened to break with the coalition if the then government led by Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte accepted a loan package put together by Brussels and Berlin and based on money from the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) [10]. The ESM, largely shaped by former German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble, is seen as a tool to interfere in the internal affairs of potential loan recipients, as it can be used to impose strict conditions by entering through the back door, so to speak. Critics in Italy see it as the tool of a repressive system that has already sunk Greece's economy in the years of the financial crisis since 2010. An influential German newspaper, the FAZ, recently dismissed criticism of the ESM in the Italian parliament as "a great moment of anti-European and anti-German rhetoric" [11].
[2] Henrik Müller: Ich - oder der Untergang. manager-magazin.de 07.02.2021.
[3] Nikolas Busse: Was Draghis Mission wäre. faz.net 04.02.2021.
[4] Elisabeth Pongratz: Der Retter Italiens? deutschlandfunk.de 03.02.2021.
[5], [6], [7] Dorothea Siems: Italien retten, die EU prägen - "Super-Draghi" ist zurück im Zentrum der Macht. welt.de 04.02.2021.
[8] Fünf-Sterne-Bewegung und Lega signalisieren Unterstützung für Draghi. spiegel.de 07.02.2021.
[9] Matthias Rüb: Draghi gewinnt Grillo und die Fünf Sterne. faz.net 07.02.2021.
[10] Jörg Seisselberg: Italien sagt Nein zu 39 Milliarden der EU. tagesschau.de 14.04.2020
[11] Tobias Piller: "Die Deutschen klauen auch noch unser Familiensilber". faz.net 10.12.2020.
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